Illegal Migration and Weather Shocks: Evidence from Rural Mexico

Abstract

Weather shocks pose many challenges for workers in developing countries. International migration can work as a coping mechanism for this reality. The legal status of migrants is critical to understand the effect of these shocks on workers' well-being. In this paper, we study the effect of weather shocks on legal and illegal migration from rural Mexico to the United States. First, we find that weather shocks in the wet season increase migration. The increase is entirely driven by illegal migrants. Second, we propose a mechanism to explain this result: the effect of weather on agricultural production. We find that weather shocks decrease total harvested land and corn production. Third, we show that young and unwealthy workers are more sensitive to weather shocks. Lastly, we use our estimates to have a first glance at climate change’s impact on migration. We find that climate change would increase illegal migration by 50%.